Dismal sales in February, two consecutive declines in new energy vehicle sales are expected to stop in March and return to growth in April

This is a belated February sales analysis.

Throughout February, affected by the epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China both declined, with a year-on-year decline of 70%; of which, 15,000 were wholesale and 14,000 were retail. Specific to the models, the Tesla Model 3 topped the list with 3,900 vehicles; the second-ranked GAC New Energy Aion S competed fiercely with the third-ranked BYD Qin EV with only four vehicles.

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Of course, the above data is based on the statistics of the China Federation of Trade Unions.

If the statistics are more realistic, the insurance volume of China's new energy vehicles in February 2020 will be 4092 units, which is only the same as the sales volume of the CIC. You know, even this kind of high-risk data also includes data such as the Corolla Double Engine and the Corolla Double Engine E + that cannot be completely separated.

However, in order to better explain the sales trend of China's new energy vehicles, we still take the more comprehensive data of the production and sales data of the China Federation of Associations as the standard, to bring you this analysis article.

■ Grade A pure electric vehicle is still the main sales force

Divided by model level, the top ten sales models are still mainly A-class pure electric models. According to the analysis of the proportion of the passenger association, pure electric vehicles accounted for 88% of total sales in February, of which A-class vehicles accounted for 47%; plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 12% of total sales in February, of which A-class vehicles accounted for 40 %.

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According to the “19-20 New Energy Vehicle Sales Trend” drawn by the CCIFC, it can be seen that A-class vehicles have always been the main force of market share, and in February alone contributed 7028 sales. However, affected by the epidemic, the sales of new energy A-class vehicles of independent brands may decline significantly, because 60% of sales in this segment previously came from online rental car purchase demand.

■ Foreign brands (Tesla) begin to exert

Since the completion of Tesla's Shanghai plant, sales of Model 3 have continued to rise. In February, Tesla Model 3 gave a good result of 3,900 vehicles, not only topped the sales list, but also accounted for 29% of the total new energy vehicle sales in February.

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In the pure electric segment, Tesla defeated joint venture brands and new power brands in one fell swoop, second only to its own brand market share. However, due to the epidemic situation and the "mixed loading door" incident, how the Model 3's future sales performance cannot be concluded.

■ New forces in automobile construction perform well

Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and epidemic situation, NIO ES6 has advanced 3 places in the sales ranking. So far, NIO has won the championship of pure electric SUV sales for 5 consecutive months. The Weimar EX5, which is also a new car building force, also ranked 6th with 567 cars this month.

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Through this line chart drawn by the CCIFC, we can see that since 2020, NIO and Weima, the two leading companies in the new car manufacturing industry, have achieved stable sales performance. I hope that in the future, new forces such as Xiaopeng, Aichi, and Hezhong that have delivered mass-produced cars can also catch up with the two big brothers.

■ Where to go for A00 class cars

The A00-class car on the list this month is still our old friend Chery eQ. It's just that the decline of new car sales figures is surprising, regardless of year-on-year or month-on-month. Chery eQ sold 751 vehicles last month, but did not make the list. This month, it ranked 8th with 470 vehicles.

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From the perspective of the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2019, the market share of A00-class new energy vehicles is second only to the market share of A-class new energy vehicles. Considering that 60% of the A-class vehicle market is the demand for online taxis, then A00 new energy vehicles may be just the national purchase of cars.

Unfortunately, however, the share of the A00 market is shrinking. We have extended the time axis to "years". The market share of A00-class new energy vehicles has decreased from 69% at the peak of 2017 to 27% in 2019 year by year; even the first two months of 2020 cumulatively accounted for only 16%. The reason is mainly because the state's requirements for technical standards for financial subsidies for new energy vehicles are constantly increasing. A00 class new energy vehicles are affected by cruising range and battery energy density, but they lose their competitiveness.

■ Some doubts

In comparison, from January to February each year, the share of the new energy vehicle market will decline to varying degrees. The reason is that the shortened car sales time during the Spring Festival holiday led to a decline in sales. However, with the return to work of various industries in March every year, the sales of new energy vehicles will also increase.

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From this chart of the sales of new energy vehicle companies drawn by the CCIFC, we can see that the decline in January-February this year was larger than in previous years. Moreover, this year has the dual impact of the epidemic, and it is unknown whether the sales of various auto companies will return to normal in March. Among them, the data of BAIC New Energy fluctuated the most. In December 2019, sales reached a peak for the whole year. After entering 2020, it started a two consecutive decline. BAIC New Energy takes care and hopes to get out of the adjustment period as soon as possible in March.

■ Bang Reviews

There is no doubt that the biggest impact on the automotive industry this year is the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Although the domestic epidemic control has achieved initial results at this stage, it is not optimistic whether the sales of new energy vehicles in March will usher in the imaginary growth. The good news is that from mid-March, the Beijing auto market has clearly recovered. As a practitioner in the new energy vehicle industry, I sincerely hope that with the smooth implementation of the “return to work and resumption of work” by companies across the country, the new energy vehicle market will stop the decline in March and usher in comprehensive growth in April. (Data source: MCC)