On March 19, according to foreign media reports, a recent analysis report was pessimistic about the potential impact of the new crown virus epidemic on the supply chain, claiming that this could lead to Apple's planned abortion of the 5G iPhone this fall.
Wade Bush said the situation could get better in its so-called "negative stress test scenario," but it could also get worse.
"Our current stress test scenario believes that due to the global ban, 5G iPhones will not be released this fall, and Asia's supply chain is still on the way to normalization."
"Obviously, anything can happen, and given this volatile global pandemic, this stress test on the Apple iPhone may prove to be conservative or not radical enough. The duration of this impact and The range is unpredictable, but we are doing our best to use our new model for forecasting. We are lowering our Apple stock target price from $ 400 to $ 335. "
Wade Bush said that it expects Apple's iPhone sales to be affected this fiscal year and the next fiscal year, starting from the holiday quarter.
"Because global Apple retail stores other than China may be closed for a long time and the global economic situation may be deteriorating, we expect this Black Swan incident to have a significant negative impact on Apple's business model in the foreseeable future. However, In one report, we tried to stress-test our model to bring it into a more 'negative stress-test scenario' and provide some reference for investors. "
"We will reduce iPhone revenue by 14% and 10% in FY 2020 and FY 2021, respectively, to reflect recent changes in consumer demand, global bans, and negative economic impact. In this case, we now assume that only Existing user groups who are currently in the upgrade window and have not upgraded their iPhone for more than 42 months will only buy new phones in the next 18 to 24 months. "
"At present, we estimate that only about 350 million of Apple ’s 925 million iPhones worldwide are in this upgrade window, because we assume that, under more severe conditions, new smartphone purchases that occur outside these large user bases will be Rarely. "
Wade Bush did not elaborate on whether its "no 5G iPhone in the fall" scenario meant that they would be released later this year or postponed until next year. In either case, this will count towards Apple's fiscal year 2021.
It is widely expected that 5G will become a catalyst for setting iPhone sales records.