Tesla's China growth woes

For electric car manufacturer Tesla, the biggest achievement this year in the bull market should be attributed to the huge growth opportunities in China. However, with the large-scale mass production of Model 3 models at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, the "digestibility" of the Chinese market has reached a bottleneck period. Before the arrival of this bottleneck period, Tesla has adopted a strategy of exporting overseas, especially in Europe, which is gradually losing its lead.

According to third-party data, in October, the sales of Model 3 that rolled off the Shanghai Tesla Gigafactory were slightly more than 12,000. Of course, compared with the past three months of 7/8/9, the sales of this model show a trend of gradual rise and recovery, but there is still a big gap compared with the sales of more than 15,000 vehicles in June.

In the past six months, the average sales of Model 3 were slightly higher than 12,000, or about 144,600 per year. At the beginning of this year, Tesla set an annual production target of 150,000 vehicles for the Shanghai Super Factory. Although affected by the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the sales figure continued to rise to more than 200,000 vehicles. And this is only the output of Model 3, you must know that the Model Y models of the Shanghai plant are also in full swing.

Of course, another price corresponding to sales volume. As early as April 2019, the starting price of the standard battery life Model 3 exported from the United States was 377,000 yuan (USD $53857) . Therefore, the localized Model 3 reduces the price to a certain extent. On April 10 this year, the Model 3 was priced at 323,800 yuan (USD $46257) . On May 1, the price fell to 291,800 yuan (USD $41686) . On October 1, the price dropped to 269,800 yuan (USD $38543) .

In addition, in the second half of this year, the RMB exchange rate continued to rise. From April to October, prices fell by about 17%. Judging from the weak performance of the U.S. dollar, Tesla’s rate of decline after converting its average sales price into U.S. dollars is actually not that large. You know that in the fourth quarter, the renminbi appreciated by about 3%.

At present, subject to the influence of "new car-building forces" and the rapid development of BYD, Tesla's sales growth momentum in China has shown a downward trend to a certain extent, so it may be exported to Europe as a last resort. If you think about it, there must be enough demand in the Chinese market to absorb the entire output of the Shanghai Super Factory, so this should not be an opportunity for Tesla's huge growth.

This week, it was reported that the Shanghai Super Factory's production target for next year is 500,000 vehicles. Although this is very optimistic from the data point of view, given the current sales performance, continued price cuts and the launch of the Chinese Model 3 in the next few months, this is not a huge good news.

As Tesla's competition in China intensifies, it is now necessary to consider what Tesla's Fremont factory can do. Thinking of the stock price breaking through $450 for the first time since October, this does not include any long-term trading around profitability. It seems that the increase at the beginning of the year is partly attributed to the article about the surge in Shanghai production next year and the overall market increase. Downside lows. Coupled with the unsatisfactory sales in October, another price cut in China may be the only way to solve the growth dilemma.